HIV Treatment and Economic Outcomes in Malawi

Jeremy Barofsky, University of Southern California
Neeraj Sood, University of Southern California
Zachary Wagner, University of Southern California

This paper uses variation in roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Malawi to identify the mortality and economic effects of HIV treatment. A difference-in-difference methodology is employed to compare areas in Malawi with high versus low ART coverage per capita. Using data sets that provide measured HIV prevalence, we find that increasing treatment from 1 to 3 per thousand population is associated with a two percentage point decrease in HIV prevalence, a 30% decrease in prevalence among the youngest age cohort, and 1.5 deaths per 1000 reduction in adult mortality. Our population-level economic analysis finds that ART produces a 10% increase in labor force participation among males. Female labor force participation shows smaller, but statistically significant increases as well.