Discrete Time to Event Models for Age at First Marriage in Namibia

Lillian Pazvakawambwa, University of Namibia
Lawrence Kazembe, University of Namibia
Nelago Indongo, University of Namibia

The propensity to marry, the stability and duration of marriage have considerable implications for the organization of family life. The age at first marriage may also influence population growth, labour supply, consumption, wage rates, mortality, migration and to some extent fertility. This paper explores the age- period-cohort effects by fitting discrete time-to-event models of age at first marriage. We explored structured additive models for discrete time- to-event outcome derived from a retrospective cross-sectional data of the 2006-7 Namibian Health and Demographic Survey, to establish individual and structural effects, and simultaneously investigate non-linear effects of age, cohort and period on the timing of first marriage among women. We did not observe any significant nonlinear pattern of age at first marriage with age, cohort and period. First marriage timing in Namibia was influenced by the woman’s age, birth cohort, period, place of residence, highest educational level, socio-economic status and region.