Tools for Non-Cohort-Component Projection

Peter Johnson, U.S. Census Bureau

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Subnational Projections Toolkit currently supports two methods for non-cohort-component projections. The workbook SALGST projects the proportional distribution of total population by subnational area using a logistic curve fitted to data from two censuses. These projected proportions are then adjusted to sum to 1.0 and can be applied to an independent projection of the total population of the country. The CTBL32 workbook applies the iterative proportional fitting method or raking to create projections of the age distribution of a subnational populations based on subnational age data from a recent census and a projection of the age distribution for the total population (usually based on the cohort-component method).