Using Systematic Anomalous Case Analysis to Inform Theories of Fertility: A Case Study from Cebu, Philippines

Jessica D. Gipson, University of California, Los Angeles
Andrew Hicks, University of California, Los Angeles
Subasri Narasimhan, University of California, Los Angeles
Socorro A. Gultiano, University of San Carlos

Systematic anomalous case analysis (SACA) is a form of mixed-method research in which existing data are used to identify and conduct subsequent examination of cases that do not exhibit the expected behavior, for the purpose of refining social theories and measurement strategies. Using intergenerational longitudinal cohort data from the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey (CLHNS) in the Philippines, we use household, peer, family, and young adults’ sexual attitudes, as reported in 1998, to predict the number of living children that young adults had by 2009 (ages 25-26). We then calculate residuals to identify statistical outliers (anomalous cases) from the multivariate model. In-depth interviews with a subsample of the anomalous and normative cases are conducted to identify ways in which subsequent investigations and data collection instruments may better theorize and measure fertility among young adults in this and other settings.