The Effect of a Negative Shock to Fertility Preferences on Subsequent Childbearing, Schooling, and Earnings

Kandice Kapinos, RAND Corporation
Olga Yakusheva, Marquette University

The negative consequences of teenage fertility have been well-documented. Teen pregnancy prevention policies are rooted in the assumption that an exogenous shock to fertility preferences leads to reduced teen childbearing and improved educational and labor marker outcomes; however, testing this assumption empirically is challenging. This study utilizes a young woman’s exposure to a friend’s teen childbirth vs. miscarriage, as a shock to fertility preferences, to investigate immediate and longer term-effects on fertility, human capital accumulation, and labor market outcomes. Using Add Health data, we find that women who were exposed to an exogenous shock of a friend’s teen childbirth were less likely to have a teen childbirth themselves, and they also had an increased likelihood of attending college and higher earning by the age of 22. These effects were similar for Black and non-Black women, although Black women were also less likely to drop out of high school.