Leaving School in an Economic Downturn: Long-Run Effects on Marriage and Fertility

Johanna Catherine Maclean, University of Pennsylvania
Reginald Covington, Cornell University
Asia Sikora, University of Nebraska Medical Center

In this study we assess the long-run impact of leaving school in an economic downturn on marriage and fertility outcomes. We draw data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Our sample left school between 1976 and 1996, and we utilize variation in the state unemployment rate at the time of school-leaving to identify marriage and fertility effects. We find that men who left school in an economic downturn are less likely to be married and have children at age 40 than otherwise similar men while women are more likely to be divorced and to have children. Our results suggest that the marriage and fertility effects we observe operate through both divorce and failure to enter marriage. In an extension, we explore heterogeneity by worker characteristics and document the strongest effects for low skill and minority men.