Spatial Variations in Covariates on Marriage and Marital Fertility: Geographically Weighted Regression Analyses in Japan

Kenji Kamata, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

To understand the determinants of raising fertility rates after 2005 in Japan, this study investigates the spatial variations of the relationship between changes in marriage and marital fertility, and the relationships with covariates using geographically weighted regression models. Our sample is 1,853 towns and villages based on 2010 administrative boundaries. The indexes of marriage and marital fertility are made by the standardized method. The dependent variables are the standardized marital population ratio (SMR) and the marital fertility ratio (MFR). As for the explanatory factors, we focus on female labor force participation, the sex ratio, and childcare availability. All coefficients for covariates on SMR have statistically significant geographical variations. But for MFR some coefficients didn’t have significant. The female labor force participation and childcare availability show a positive relationship with MFR in the urban areas.