Regional Fertility Dynamics in India: Exploring the Role of Tempo Effects in Shaping Period Fertility Trends across Regions

Uttamacharya, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Perianayagam Arokiasamy, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

This study examines role of the tempo effects in period fertility trends in India and it six regions. Using pooled birth histories of three rounds of NFHS(19992-93,1998-99,2005-06), in this paper, we estimated fertility trends and the mean ages at child bearing by birth orders during 1981-2006. Estimated fertility trends and mean ages will be used to estimate tempo-effects in period fertility trends using Bongaarts-Feeny’s method. Results from the preliminary analysis reveal that cumulated fertility before age 40(TFR40) in India declined from 4.5 to 2.7 during 1981-2006 with urban fertility levels being lower than rural areas. Regional fertility trends of India show that southern region had lowest and the central region had highest fertility levels throughout the period. Trends in the mean ages at birth of order one and two indicate increasing trends in mean ages at birth with considerable regional heterogeneity and north-eastern region registering highest increase in the mean ages.