Cohort-Based Evaluation of the Vintage 2010 Population Estimates: The Role of International Migration: 2000 To 2010

Melissa Scopilliti, U.S. Census Bureau
Ben Bolender, U.S. Census Bureau
Anthony Knapp, U.S. Census Bureau

The U.S. Census Bureau annually produces and disseminates population estimates for the nation, states, and counties. The estimates are used in federal funding allocations, as survey controls, as denominators for rates, for program planning, and as indicators of demographic change. Population estimates can be compared to census counts to assess accuracy. We plan to evaluate the 2010 series of estimates by comparing estimated population change from 2000-2010 to enumerated change using the 2000 and 2010 Census counts. The 2010 series of estimates used Census 2000 as a base and included estimates of population change due to births, deaths, and migration. The evaluation will focus on differences for age-specific cohorts by sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Particular attention will be given to the role of international migration as a component of population change over the decade. Results of the evaluation will inform methodological refinements in the population estimates program this decade.