Projecting Rates of Fertility by Nativity

Jennifer M. Ortman, U.S. Census Bureau
Sandra Colby, U.S. Census Bureau
David M. Armstrong, U.S. Census Bureau

Research has shown significant differences in the fertility of foreign and native-born women in the United States. Incorporating assumptions into our population projections that take into account the differences in fertility rates by nativity will likely improve our projections of the population. Here, we consider methods for estimating and projecting fertility rates separately by nativity status. We use birth registration data collected by the National Center for Health Statistics in conjunction with U.S. Census Bureau population estimates to calculate fertility rates by nativity. We then evaluate methods to project fertility rates by nativity from 2014 to 2060 and the feasibility of incorporating these fertility projections into the Census Bureau’s next series of national population projections.