A Multistate Lifetable Analysis for the Effects of the 1st Marriage and Marital Reproduction on Fertility in Singapore

Keita Suga, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

This study examines the patterns and demographic factors underlying the fertility changes by major ethnic group in Singapore for 1980-2010, with focusing on the differential role of the 1st marriage by ethnic group. In order to derive the 1st marriage effects on annual changes in a period fertility measure during 1980-2010 in Singapore, we need to overcome the fact that the necessary data are not available in most of years during the period. We develop a numerical model to construct multistate lifetables each year for 1980-2010. Results show ethnic differentials and similarities in the 1st marriage and marital fertility effects.