Demographic Dividends and Migration Dynamics: Cohort Influence and Migration Momentum in Thailand

Sara Curran, University of Washington
Michelle Shannon, University of Washington

Recently migration and demography scholars have considered how demographic transitions are related to migration transitions. We explore these ideas with an analysis of a unique dataset to consider both variable patterns of demographic transitions across villages and variable patterns of migration (whether to migrate, length of migration trip, and likelihood of return). We evaluate how members of cohorts born prior to the fertility boom, in the midst of the fertility boom, and after the boom have experienced migration and been influenced by migration institutions. We observe distinctly different patterns of migration for each cohort, indicating shifting roles and meanings of migration for rural communities. Furthermore, migration momentum effects and migrant selectivity change with successive cohorts. The demographic dividend appears to be directly and indirectly related to growing rates of migration. However migrant members of younger cohorts in the emerging demographic deficit cohorts have increasingly attenuated ties to origin.