Has the Age Pattern of Marriage in India Impacted on Recent Fertility Decline? Evidence from Decomposition Analysis Using State Level Data

Jay Prakash, National Institute of Health and Family Welfare, India
Priyanka Dubey, Amaltas Consulting Pvt. Ltd.

TFR in India declined to 2.4 (SRS-2011) with most of the States at or below replacement level of 2.1 children per women. However, fertility rates in many north Indian States are still much higher. The present analysis has focused on understanding the fertility dynamics and identifying contribution of non-marriage through decomposition analysis using State specific data from the last three NFHS surveys. The analysis revealed that the influence of delayed marriage on total fecundity is significant but lower than of contraception. The impact of proportion married ranges between 1 to 2.5 births across the States averaging 1.7 births for India. The decomposition analysis suggests that delayed marriage pattern has been the 2nd most important cause for fertility decline in India (45%) and several States after contraception (51%). The policy should focus on delaying marriage along with contraception to observe further decline in high fertility States.