Achieving Desired Family Size in Japan: Socio-Demographic Causes of the Discrepancies

Setsuya Fukuda, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Tokyo

Studies on determinants of achieving intended family size is scarce in East Asia, despite of the world lowest fertility in the region. Using the latest panel data of nearly 30,000 men and women, this study provides detailed profiles of women who achieved/unachieved their early fertility expectation in Japan. Comparing similar studies from U.S., U.K., and the Netherlands, our analysis reveals that there exists a large discrepancy between women's desired and actual fertility at the end of reproductive ages in Japan. By taking advantages of longitudinal data, we disaggregate the discrepancy by looking into the proportions of overachieved, achieved and underachieved early fertility desire and examine its socio-demographic correlates. As Japan shares similar family and fertility patterns with other East Asian countries, our research is the first longitudinal study which presents trends and determinants of fertility intention outcomes in East Asia.