Centenarian Overestimation: Using Vital Statistics to Evaluate Centenarians Enumerated in Recent Canadian Census and to Produce Accurate Estimates

Andre Lebel, Statistics Canada
Harry Francois, Statistics Canada

As a result of gains in life expectancy, an increasing number of Canadians are reaching advanced ages. Centenarians are currently among the fastest growing age-groups in Canada. Studies have shown that the number of centenarians has been overestimated, especially for males, in older Canadian censuses and were also proportionally higher than in other countries with similar low levels of mortality. The goal of this paper is first to assess the accuracy of the number of centenarians reported in recent censuses using various indicators, administrative data and international comparisons. Second, it is to produce, using death record, estimates of number of centenarians using the extinct cohort and survival ratios methods, and to compare results with census. Finally, it is to assess the impact of a new question introduced in 2011 Census asking age in addition to the date of birth of respondents on overestimation of centenarians.