What Explains Rwanda's Drop in Fertility between 2005 and 2010?

Tom Bundervoet, World Bank Group

Following a decade-and-a-half stall, fertility in Rwanda dropped sharply between 2005 and 2010. Using a hierarchical age-period-cohort model, this article finds that the drop in fertility is largely driven by cohort effects, with younger cohorts having substantially fewer children than older cohorts observed at the same age. Applying a Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition on two successive DHS rounds, we find that improved female education levels account for the largest part of the fertility decline, with improving household living standards and the progressive move towards non-agricultural employment being important secondary drivers. The drop in fertility has been particularly salient for the younger cohorts, for whom the fertility decline can be fully explained by changes in underlying determinants, most notably the large increase in educational attainment between 2005 and 2010.