Effects of Employment Instability on the Timing and Intensity of Fertility in France: An Application of Turbulence to Labor Market Trajectories

Daniel Ciganda, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

The emergence of new evidence suggesting a sign shift in the longstanding negative correlation between prosperity and fertility levels has sparked a renewed interest in understanding the relationship between economic hardship and fertility decisions. In this context, the notion of uncertainty has gained relevance in analyses of low fertility. So far, most studies have approached this notion using snapshot indicators like type of contract or employment situation. However, these measures seem to be falling short in capturing what is intrinsically a dynamic process. In this paper I develop an indicator of employment instability that considers the entire employment trajectory. Using sequence analysis I first classify trajectories based on their degree of turbulence. The result is then used in a event history model of the risk of having a first child and later in a series of logistic regressions predicting the intensity of fertility. Analyses are performed for French men and women.