A Spatial Analysis of Recent Fertility Patterns in Spain

Alessandra Carioli, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and University of Groningen
Daniel Devolder, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Joaquin Recaño Valverde, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

The objective of this paper is to investigate the variability present in fertility across different geographic areas in Spain during years 1986-2011. The territorial distinctiveness of Spain allows for a spatial analysis of fertility patterns that have always showed unique features. Using unique data from Spanish provinces (NUTS3) and municipalities (LAU2), we construct the indicators used in the analysis: Total Fertility Rate, grouped by 5 years age groups, Mean Age at Childbirth, variance of MAC. All indicators are classified by birth order and by mother and father’s country of birth for years 1986-2011. The first part of the analysis addresses global and local spatial autocorrelation of the indicators through means of descriptive spatial analysis. Secondly, we introduce a new grouping of municipalities, the comarcas, to further investigate patters of geographical dependency. We then apply a cluster analysis to identify which dimensions of fertility can explain the geographical variance in fertility.