Reported Partnership Concurrency and HIV Incidence among Married Couples in Two Population-Based Cohort Studies in Rural Uganda

Elizabeth A. Sully, Princeton University
Fred Nalugoda, Rakai Health Sciences Program
Kenneth Ekoru, MRC/UVRI Uganda Research Unit on AIDS
Tom Lutalo, Rakai Health Sciences Program
Janet Seeley, MRC/UVRI Uganda Research Unit on AIDS

Concurrent partnerships are often considered a primary driver of the HIV epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. Due to data constraints, however, few studies have been able to demonstrate its effect using empirical data. In this paper, we test whether HIV transmission rates are higher for individuals with concurrent partners. Data spanning a 14-year time period are used from two rural community sero-surveillance sites in South-Western Uganda. Sero-concordant negative married couples are followed over time, examining the risk of seroconversion among women whose husbands reported a concurrent partnership. We find mixed evidence for the effect of the husband’s concurrency on the HIV incidence of their wives. Using data on seroconversions, we are able to assess the degree of concurrency misreporting. Our preliminary findings suggest a need to better understand the variations in behaviors that may mediate the effect of concurrency, as well as the limitations to using self-reported concurrency.