A U.S. Analysis of the Macro-Economics of Family Formation: Marrying in the Great Recession and Prior Post-Industrial Recessions

C. Soledad Espinoza, U.S. Census Bureau and Johns Hopkins University

With longitudinal data from the U.S. Census Bureau SIPP Synthetic Beta (SSB) public use data product, this study provides an analysis of the relationship between first marriage and the macro-economy. Across the years 1978 to 2010, I examine the relation between economic conditions and marrying trends using measures of both the national unemployment rate and recession/non-recession indicators. The analysis covers four distinct U.S. recessions—the early 1980s (1980-82), the early 1990s (1990-91), the early first decade of the 21st century (2001-2003), and the Great Recession (2008-09). The data include time-constant demographic variables and marital, fertility, education, and earnings life histories merged from federal survey and administrative sources for each panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Based on a constructed event history data structure, I conduct regression analyses with ordinary logit and random intercept logit models. I verify the results with the underlying (non-synthesized) restricted use data.