Use of Small Area Population Estimates and Projections for the Certificate of Bed Need in Illinois

Mohammed Shahidullah, Illinois Department of Public Health
Nelson Agbodo, Illinois Health Facilities and Services Review Board

In this paper we demonstrate how small area population estimates and projections are used along with other factors such as patient days, maximum use rate, minimum use rate and experienced use rate to determine projected beds needed for general long term care in Illinois. In developing health care facility plans, the Illinois Health Facilities Planning Board (Board) is required to consider several factors including the size, composition and growth of the population of the area to be served. We used a combination of linear extrapolation and cohort-component methods to produce population estimates and projections for the Certificate of Need (CON) health service areas. The CON process is designed to restrain rising health care costs by preventing unnecessary construction or modification of health care facilities. We demonstrate how bed needs were computed and how population projections were used for the CON application reviewing process.