Fertility Transition, Woman’s Education and Poverty: Why Punjab Is Different from Others?

Muhammad Asif Wazir, Population Council Pakistan

This paper studies various aspects of provincial fertility transition in Pakistan. Our aim is to consider whether Punjab fertility decline differs from the decline in the other provinces in their essential demographic features and to examine the nature of relationship between fertility, woman’s education and poverty. Very little is known about the fertility changes at sub-national level in Pakistan. Using data from Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS Punjab) and Pakistan Demographic and health survey, we compare the fertility patterns of Punjab with other provinces of Pakistan. The paper also examines fertility changes at district level of Punjab. Results indicate that fertility transition is a significant determinant of poverty reduction in districts of Punjab. Three patterns emerged, 1) ideal family size and transition to 4th or higher order births is lower in Punjab, 2) contraceptive use is imperative in fertility decline and 3) Punjab socio-economic development is pronounced. The paper also comments on the quality of MICS data.