Why Is the Rate of College Dropout so High and Why Is It Rising for Men?

Maury Gittleman, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Alison Aughinbaugh, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Charles R. Pierret, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Using the NLSY79 and NLSY97, we examine changes in college completion rates and their causes. We find that college completion rates fell from one cohort to the next, with the rate for men dropping sharply, while that for women increased. Thus, any explanation for these trends must be able to account for gender differences. We will model the probability of completing college as a function of three different categories of variables: 1) student attributes; 2) characteristics of the postsecondary institutions; and 3) measures of any “mismatch” between the ability of the student and the quality of the institution. We will decompose differences over time in college completion rates into portions attributable to changes in the observed characteristics between cohorts and to changes in the coefficients. The portion attributable to changes in the observed characteristics will be further examined to assess the relative importance of student characteristics, institutional resources and mismatch.