Explaining the Decline in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Effect of the Great Recession

Andres Villarreal, University of Texas at Austin

This study examines the origins of the dramatic decline in U.S.-Mexico migration in recent years using a nationally-representative panel survey of Mexican households. The results strongly support an explanation that attributes the decline to lower labor demand for Mexican immigrants in the U.S. Decreases in labor demand in industrial sectors that employ a large percentage of Mexican-born workers such as construction are found to be strongly associated with lower rates of migration for Mexican men. Second, changes in migrant selectivity are also consistent with an economic explanation for the decline in international migration. The largest declines in migration occurred precisely among the demographic groups most affected by the recession, namely economically active young men with low levels of education. Results from the statistical analysis also show that the reduction in labor demand in key sectors of the U.S. economy resulted in a more positive educational selectivity of young migrants.