The Demographic Dividend of Meeting Unmet Need for Modern Contraception in Sub-Saharan Africa

David E. Bloom, Harvard University
Salal Humair, Harvard University
Larry Rosenberg, Harvard University
JP Sevilla, George Mason University
James Trussell, Princeton University

We estimate the impact of meeting unmet need for modern methods of family planning on per-capita income in Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal. Kenya can enjoy a 16% increase in per capita income over the baseline by meeting one-third of its unmet need and a 64% increase over the baseline by meeting all of its unmet need by 2030, and 22% and 88% more income by 2050 under these scenarios. Even Nigeria (the country obtaining the lowest percentage increase in per capita income over the baseline) can enjoy 9% (by meeting one-third of unmet need) and 32% (by meeting all of its unmet need) more per-capita income by 2030, and 12% and 43% more income by 2050 under these scenarios. The corresponding figures for Senegal are 12% and 45% by 2030 and 16% and 60% by 2050.