Long-Term Care in Germany: Future Demand for Formal Providers and the Role of Informal Caregivers

Carsten Pohl, Institute for Employment Research (IAB)

The future labor market for long-term care in Germany will be significantly affected by a strong increase in the number of elderly people. This development is primarily due to the aging of the so-called baby boomer generation. Against this background, the paper provides projections with alternative scenarios how the demand for professional long-term carers may develop in each federal state until the year 2030. This regional perspective is important given that (1) not only demographic developments proceed heterogeneously across the states but also that (2) the role of informal caregivers is differently pronounced in each region. Overall, the calculation show that the demand for skilled nursing staff in Germany could increase by another 163,000 full-time equivalents until 2030 with significant differences across the federal states. Eventually, the demand for professional providers depends on the extent to which relatives are involved in long-term care.