New Population Projection of Saudi Arabia

Mehtab S. Karim, George Mason University
Sadeem Alhosain, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Centre

Saudi Arabia recorded an increased in its population by three-folds from 1980 to 2010. Of 26.3 million people, about one-third is expatriates, who are temporary migrants. Since UN projections also include non-citizen i.e. the guest workers, who are required by law to move out once their job contracts are over, these projections provide an over-estimate of the projected population which is unlikely to be the case. To overcome this discrepancy, a new population projection of Saudi Arabia is made. For inputs, we use only TFR and life expectancy at birth of Saudi citizens and then, the specific age and sex structure of Saudi population are incorporated into the projection models. We assume that both emigration and immigration of Saudi citizens are negligible. Our analysis suggest, that due to the inclusion of about 9 million population of w temporarily migrants the UN projections for Saudi Arabia are misleading.

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Presented in Poster Session 4: Migration and Urbanization; Population, Development and the Environment