Estimating Incidence of HIV with Synthetic Cohorts and Varying Mortality in Uganda

Bryan Sayer, Social & Scientific Systems, Inc.
Souleymane Barry, Social & Scientific Systems, Inc.

We estimate the incidence of HIV using two cross-sectional surveys in Uganda with varying mortality rates. The introduction of Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) in Uganda in 2004 has significantly increased the life span of those infected with HIV. The increase in lifespan has the result of increasing the prevalence level in the 2011 DHS. We show that incidence can be estimated under varying assumptions of ART coverage and just how much of the prevalence is a function of the increase in lifespan due to the use of ART.