Governing Demographics

William B. Reynolds III, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Christine Elliott, Deloitte Consulting LLP

Conventional wisdom about the Millennial generation, Americans born between 1982-2004, suggests their current behavioral shifts are only a reaction to the economic downturn. It paints a rosy, though delayed picture of the generation’s path forward. But what if conventional wisdom is wrong? Given the environment in which today’s twentysomethings are operating, it’s not difficult to imagine a very different future. Governing Demographics uses a scenario framework to play out possible implications of a Millennial dynamic that evolves counter to conventional wisdom. Our focus is not predicting which particular trends will endure, but rather considering the consequences of the continuation of current trends in the absence of policy shifts. For example, if Millennial consumption of cars and homes remain constant, what are the potential impacts on governments that continue to invest in improving and expanding highways and do not plan for decreased property tax collections?