Trends and Prospects of Mortality by Age and Sex in India: 1991-2030

Manisha Dubey, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

This paper examines the trends and prospects of mortality by age and sex in India over four decades. The observed trend in age and sex pattern of mortality are analysed for 1991-2011 while projected under constant and varying mortality scenario for 2011-30. Cohort-component method and Lee-carter model are used to project the population and age specific death rate, respectively. We have decomposed the change in deaths during 1991-2011 to understand the role of population growth, population ageing and death rates. In India, the number of deaths has increased from 8.2 million to 8.5 during 1991-2011. Population growth accounts for 44.3%, population ageing 9.6% and death rates -50.1% in increasing the total deaths. The estimated deaths are likely to be 13.2 million under constant and 9.3 million under varying mortality scenario by 2030. Death pyramid shows shift in mortality from childhood ages to adult and excess of adult mortality among male.