Projecting Mortality for the Older Population in the United States: 2014 to 2060

Jennifer M. Ortman, U.S. Census Bureau
Peter Johnson, U.S. Census Bureau
Heather King, Georgia State University

Mortality will become an increasingly important component of U.S. population projections as the nation grows older and a larger share of the population enters the older ages, which have the highest rates of mortality. We evaluate different methods for projecting mortality from 2014 to 2060, including time series, targeting, and Bayesian approaches. Results from each model will be evaluated through comparisons of projected life expectancy at birth, shifts in the age pattern of the projected mortality rates, and changes in the projected number of deaths. Results from this work will be used to provide a recommendation on the methodology for projecting mortality to be used in the Census Bureau’s next series of national projections, to be released in 2014.

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Presented in Session 25: Forecasting USA Mortality: Methods and New Findings