Economic Development and Road Traffic Fatalities in Russian Federal States during 2004-2011

Huan He, Johns Hopkins University
Nino Paichadze, Johns Hopkins University
Adnan Hyder, Johns Hopkins University

Russian Federation has made it a high level priority to reduce its burden of traffic fatalities. Economic growth implies a growth of exposure to motorized travel and may increase population risk. Understanding the economic demography of traffic fatalities in Russia is crucial to assess the role played by RTIs in the excess mortality burden of Russia. This study aims to assess the relationships of economic development (Gross Regional Product, GRP) to road traffic fatalities and fatalities per crash(CFR), using data of 73 Russian federal districts during 2004-2011, controlling for other major transportation and socioeconomic variables. Unlike previous literature, the “Kuznets Curve” pattern is not observed for road traffic fatalities. Multivariate fixed-effect analysis estimates that the number of fatalities decreases as GRP increases, but such effect is mainly explained by increasing private cars. Fatalities per crash decreases as GRP increases, but such effect is totally explained by time.