Famines and Fertility: Evidence from the Recent Intercensal Period and beyond in Rural Malawi

Tyler W. Myroniuk, University of Maryland

I examine how the likelihood of giving birth changes around a famine in Malawi. Malawi experienced famines in 2002 and 2005/2006, which affected between one-fifth and one-third of its predominantly rural inhabitants. While previous research suggests that major economic shocks impact fertility, less is known about the effects of famines especially at the micro-level. Using retrospective birth histories from the Malawi Longitudinal Studies of Families and Health, and discrete-time hazard models, it appears that the famines of 2002 and 2005/2006 had residual, lingering effects on fertility—as seen in declines two to three years after the onset of the famines. Understanding the impacts of famines on vulnerable populations, like rural Malawians, is a worthwhile endeavor in efforts to improve population projections and devise interventions after such events in the future.