Projecting Statewide Student Enrollment in Wisconsin

Sarah Kemp, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Prior to the economic recession, the Applied Population Laboratory (APL) at University of Wisconsin-Madison generated enrollment projections indicating that public school enrollment would decline until 2009-2010 and then begin to rebound. This presentation examines the demographic trends which have delayed a rebound in growth which include a slowing of birth rates, a decline in housing, and certain migration patterns. I will present updated statewide public school enrollment projections for the next ten years. Based on the cohort component model, projections are generated for 4K-12 public school enrollment for the State of Wisconsin, by urban/suburban/rural locales, and by race/ethnicity. The projections suggest that total statewide enrollment will increase in the near future. However, projections will vary and include increases and decreases in enrollment by grade grouping, locale, and race/ethnicity.